I've done the sums for you. Oh alright, MicroShit Excel has. Unfortunately, my worst fears are realised, it makes very little difference to the amount I'm going to end up paying to HMRC.
There are however two pieces of good news. Firstly, it will hit small brewers less than big ones because we get a 50% discount on beer duty but not VAT. I save £0.03 per pint!!! Secondly, it will put more costs proportionally on the big brewers, supermarkets and low end pubs like Wetherspoons.
I've assumed £2.50 a pint at 4% ABV. If the beer is good and the pub is good I think this is a very reasonable price per pint.
Please note, your pint would only cost about £1.80 without VAT and duty - remember that next time you whinge about the price of a pint.
Also remember that most publicans pay HMRC much more than they earn for themselves.
If anybody really wants to know the duty rate, it's here